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Discussion estimates is dependent on the available data on coverage levels and causes of death, and assumes that the target levels of coverage are feasible in a given context while maintaining service quality.

Further experience is needed in the feasibility and usefulness of and how it can make state-of-the-art evidence about intervention effectiveness available to policy makers and programme planners as a basis for sound decision making about how to allocate resources to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

IIP prepared for the visits by building preliminary and coverage targets as presented in the country-specific CI plans.

In Malawi, model inputs were national coverage estimates from a Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) conducted between July and November 2006 The national plan in Burkina is based on two or more antenatal care visits rather than the global consensus indicator of more than four visits, and this indicator had not been calculated for the 2006 MICS.

The second scenario (achieving 80% coverage for these four interventions) would result in a lower level of mortality reduction (31%) than the current national plan in this 5-year period, because the plan sets a target of 85% for ORS and zinc in the treatment of diarrhoea, which is the single largest cause of under-5 deaths, and the scenario target of 80% represents a reduction from this level of coverage.

Full implementation of the national plan in Burkina Faso is projected to result in a 24% reduction in under-5 mortality—from 170 in 2006 to 129 in 2011.

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By late 2008, all countries receiving CI funds had developed specific plans for scaling-up interventions within the context of their respective national strategies for maternal, newborn and child health.National data sets had limited applicability due to the huge variability by geographic region in child mortality burden and intervention coverage levels.We therefore used coverage estimates from a 2007 survey conducted in the Central, Northern, Upper East and Upper West Regions. In each setting, the IIP team asked in-country partners to identify a few individuals familiar with the national plans and comfortable with computer applications to work with the IIP team to apply modelling exercise.The early applications reported on here began with the intervention-specific coverage targets defined in the national plan for the CI acceleration, most of which were generated through a workshop-based application of the UNICEF-supported Marginal Budgets for Bottlenecks (MBB) tool.

to initial implementation plans focused on: (i) the total percent reduction in under-5 mortality between baseline (around 2006) and 2011 if national coverage targets were achieved; and (ii) the contribution of individual interventions to the modelled reductions in child mortality, permitting a comparison of the relative contribution of different interventions to the achievement of the plan’s outcome objectives.

Results The results show that in each country, achieving national coverage targets for just four or five high-impact interventions could reduce under-5 mortality by at least 20% by 2011, relative to 2006 levels.

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